As US-Israel strikes continue in Iran, China faces serious oil supply risks. Consequently, deep energy ties between Tehran and Beijing now face their toughest phase in years.
Therefore, analysts consider this development a major threat to the Chinese economy. Although Beijing condemned the attacks strongly, it also called for a ceasefire.
However, China avoided any economic retaliation because such action could damage its own energy supply chain.
China Reduces Iranian Oil Purchases
According to a Media report, Beijing buys more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports. In 2025, that equaled around 1.38 million barrels per day.
Moreover, this volume formed nearly 13 to 14 percent of China’s total seaborne crude imports. Clearly, the exposure remains significant.
Nevertheless, Iran does not stand as China’s only supplier. Instead, Russia and Saudi Arabia rank as Beijing’s two largest oil sources.
After tensions increased, Chinese refinery firms quietly reduced Iranian oil purchases. Meanwhile, they relied more heavily on discounted Russian crude to maintain supply stability.
Strategic Concerns Over Iran’s Actions
Balakrishnan, co-founder of Avalon Intelligence, described Tehran’s retaliation as a historic strategic error. According to him, Iran confronts a powerful military coalition.
Furthermore, he argued that Iran risks its vital role in China’s West Asia energy and geopolitical framework.
25-Year Cooperation Agreement Under Pressure
Iran holds a 25-year cooperation agreement with Beijing. This pact covers energy, infrastructure, and transport corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative.
Additionally, discounted crude shipments, often routed through complex business channels amid Western sanctions, ensured stable supply for China.
However, Balakrishnan warned that Iranian missile attacks on American assets in the Middle East may backfire strategically.
Targeting US Assets Could Shift Regional Balance
He stated, “By targeting American assets on Arab soil, Tehran has angered neutral parties and accelerated regional alignment toward the US-Israel alliance.”
Consequently, this shift narrows Iran’s diplomatic space. Moreover, it complicates China’s balancing efforts across the region.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Beijing’s Biggest Fear
Above all, the Strait of Hormuz poses the greatest concern for Beijing. Nearly 44 percent of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East.
Therefore, any disruption in this crucial maritime route would create far greater impact than Iran’s direct share alone.
