The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran and immediately began burning through money at a historic rate. In just the first 100 hours of the military campaign, the US spent an estimated US$5.2 billion. That figure breaks down to approximately US$1.2 billion every single day. Furthermore, this estimate does not include the cost of Israel’s simultaneous military operations striking Iranian targets from its side.
An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies compiled these figures from the cost of thousands of munitions fired, fighter jets deployed and naval assets mobilised across the region. Additionally, Pentagon officials informed Congress that the first full week of the war cost approximately US$6 billion. Consequently, the financial scale of this conflict is already comparable to some of the most expensive military operations in recent American history, and it is still ongoing.
The Human Cost Behind the Numbers
Currently, Iran’s health ministry reports that at least 1,200 people have been killed and 10,000 injured since the war began. Furthermore, Lebanese authorities report at least 850 people killed amid escalating hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Several Gulf nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait, have also reported civilian deaths following Iranian retaliatory strikes.
The United Nations has warned that migrant workers in Lebanon and Iran are among the most vulnerable people caught in the conflict. Specifically, many have been displaced from their homes and are relying entirely on community networks for shelter and basic assistance. Additionally, the UN called for a formal investigation into an attack on a girls’ school in Iran on the first day of US and Israeli strikes, with reported death tolls ranging between 150 and 175 students.
Defence Stocks Are Soaring While Bombs Fall
However, while the human toll mounts, a very different story is playing out on Wall Street. On the first day of trading after the Iran war began, weapons manufacturers saw their collective stock prices rise 1.5 per cent. Specifically, Lockheed Martin — the world’s largest defence contractor, saw its share price rise over 4 per cent to near all-time highs, closing at US$676.70. Furthermore, the company’s stock has increased nearly 40 per cent since the start of the year as tensions between the US and Iran escalated steadily.
Lockheed manufactures the F-35 fighter jet, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence missile system and the long-range Precision Strike Missiles currently being used in the operation. Additionally, RTX, which makes the Patriot air defence system and the Tomahawk missile, saw its share price rise 4.7 per cent. Northrop Grumman, maker of the B-2 stealth bombers used to strike Iranian ballistic missile facilities on the war’s first day, saw its share price climb six per cent. Together, all major American arms manufacturers are posting significant gains as the conflict continues.
Hundreds of Millions Per Missile, Billions Per Week
The mathematics of modern warfare explain exactly why defence stocks are surging. Specifically, the US has already fired hundreds of Patriot missiles in this conflict, each costing approximately US$4 million per unit. Consequently, the munitions bill alone runs into the billions within days of sustained operations. Furthermore, every missile fired must eventually be replaced, creating a guaranteed and immediate revenue stream for the companies that manufacture them.
Elbit Systems, an Israeli manufacturer of drones and surveillance systems, has jumped 30 per cent in just the past month. Additionally, it became the highest-valued company on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange following recent share price growth. The connection between American and Israeli weapons industries deepens the profit picture further. Specifically, the Israeli military uses significant quantities of equipment and munitions manufactured by American firms. Therefore, every Israeli strike or missile interception also generates revenue for US defence contractors operating on the other side of the world.
Quadrupling Production and Pushing for US$1.5 Trillion
The weapons industry is not simply watching profits accumulate, it is actively accelerating production to meet wartime demand. Executives from Lockheed, RTX, BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace, L3Harris and Northrop Grumman recently attended a White House meeting with President Trump focused entirely on speeding up weapons manufacturing. Specifically, Lockheed announced after the meeting that the companies had agreed to quadruple critical munitions production.
Furthermore, the Pentagon is expected to request an additional US$50 billion from Congress to fund the extra military spending the war requires. Additionally, Trump is expected to present Congress with a proposal to increase overall military spending to US$1.5 trillion next year. Together, these figures represent a level of defence spending that would exceed anything the US has committed to its military since the Second World War. Consequently, for defence contractors and their shareholders, this war is not a crisis — it is an extraordinary commercial opportunity.
Politicians Call It a Good Investment
The most striking aspect of the financial dimension of this war is how openly some political figures are embracing it. Republican senator Lindsey Graham defended the conflict in a recent television interview with direct financial framing. Specifically, he argued that when Iran’s current government falls, the US will establish a new geopolitical order in the Middle East. Furthermore, he stated that the US would gain access to a partnership covering 31 per cent of the world’s combined oil reserves from Venezuela and Iran. Together, he said, this made the war the “best money ever spent” and a “really good investment” for America.
Trump argues rising oil prices benefit the US as a major energy producer. He says higher prices allow the US to earn significantly more revenue.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricts nearly one-fifth of global oil supply. This disruption raises fuel prices and boosts profits for American energy companies. However, these rising prices severely impact consumers across the global economy.
The Paradox of Incentives Nobody Wants to Discuss
A professor of entrepreneurship at Kingston University identified what he called an “uncomfortable truth” at the heart of modern conflict. Specifically, he wrote that while war inflicts pain on some, it simultaneously creates windfalls for others. Furthermore, he described a paradox of incentives, where those best placed to end a conflict are frequently among those with the most financial reason to see it continue.
Currently, Pentagon contractors employ more than a thousand lobbyists in Washington. Public opinion polls show Americans oppose a prolonged war with Iran. However, this opposition does not influence current US policy decisions. The US has temporarily eased sanctions on certain oil purchases.
This move allows countries to buy previously restricted oil products. Ukraine and European allies criticise the decision for benefiting Russia’s war economy.
Who Is Really Winning This War?
Together, the picture that emerges from the financial data is deeply uncomfortable. The US is spending over a billion dollars a day. Over a thousand people are dead. Millions more face displacement, injury and economic devastation. However, defence company shareholders are celebrating record returns, oil exporters are counting higher revenues and politicians are openly discussing the conflict in terms of profit and geopolitical gain.
The question of who benefits from this war is not an abstract or academic one. It is the most important question of all because, as the professor wrote, understanding who profits from war is essential to understanding why wars persist long after it seems rational to stop.
