Tamil Nadu politics witnessed a major change this time. Moreover, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, TVK, broke nearly six decades of Dravidian dominance. The party won 108 seats and emerged as the single largest party. Also, TVK entered its first election and still made a strong mark. However, despite this big victory, the party fell slightly short of forming government alone.
Majority Maths Creates A Tight Race
Tamil Nadu has a 234-member Assembly. Therefore, any party needs 118 seats for a clear majority. TVK has won 108 seats, so it still lacks 10 seats. Meanwhile, Vijay won from two seats, Perambur and Tiruchi East. According to rules, he must leave one seat. Consequently, TVK’s number will drop by one. Also, one MLA will become Speaker after government formation. Since the Speaker normally does not vote, TVK’s effective strength will fall further. Therefore, the party needs support from at least 12 extra MLAs to prove majority.
TVK Studies Three Government Options
TVK now studies three scenarios for government formation. First, it can form government with smaller parties from the DMK alliance. This option includes TVK with 108 seats, Congress with 5, Left with 4, IUML with 2, and VCK with 2. Second, TVK can take smaller parties from both DMK and AIADMK alliances. This plan includes TVK with 108, Congress with 5, PMK with 4, IUML with 2, and Left with 4. According to sources, TVK has discussed alliances with Congress and other smaller parties. Moreover, it may offer cabinet berths to all partners. This move can help create a stable government despite a narrow majority. Third, TVK can remove other alliance parties and form a stronger government with only AIADMK support. In that case, TVK will have 108 seats and AIADMK will bring 47 seats.
Smaller Parties Become Kingmakers
Smaller parties and alliances have now entered the kingmaker role. According to election results, the DMK alliance received a scattered mandate. Congress won 6 seats, while CPI and CPI(M) won 2 seats each. Additionally, Indian Union Muslim League and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi also gained representation. Meanwhile, the AIADMK alliance won limited seats. In that alliance, PMK and BJP secured some seats. Therefore, if TVK wins support from even some smaller parties, it can cross the majority mark easily.
Governor May Start The Next Step
Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar may soon begin the government formation process. He can invite Vijay to stake claim and prove majority. Alternatively, he can ask Vijay to show support letters. However, if TVK fails to prove majority, the Governor can invite DMK, the second-largest party. Finally, if no party forms government, Tamil Nadu may face President’s Rule. Then, the state can hold fresh elections within six months.
