El Nino has reached the tropical Pacific and continues strengthening much faster than early forecasts suggested. The phenomenon develops when central and eastern Pacific waters become unusually warm. Changes in winds above those waters also drive the event. Consequently, rainfall and temperature patterns across several regions are already shifting.
The World Meteorological Organisation expects a strong event between August and October. Meanwhile, US forecasters see above 90% odds for an exceptionally strong Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter event. November and December could produce the strongest episode recorded since 1950. However, El Nino does not affect every region equally. One area may face drought while another experiences flooding. Likewise, every extreme event during El Nino cannot automatically receive attribution.
Asia faces heat, dryness and disrupted rainfall
Indonesia offers one of the clearest examples. El Nino has reduced regional rainfall, dried vegetation and increased wildfire risks. Indonesian authorities reported nearly 95,000 hectares damaged by fires during July. Southeast Asia and Australia also face hotter, drier conditions. Therefore, crops, water supplies and electricity generation face growing pressure.
Australia’s 2023-24 El Nino produced its driest three-month period on record. India faces another major consequence through weaker southwest monsoon conditions. June ended with an almost 40% rainfall deficit. July rainfall improved after repeated low-pressure systems, yet the deficit remained 12% by August 19. Moreover, rainfall increasingly arrives through short, intense bursts. Such patterns have triggered floods across numerous regions. The IMD also warns that stronger El Nino could weaken the monsoon’s final phase.
Food markets face additional risks. Vietnam and Indonesia produce roughly half the world’s robusta coffee. Heat and dryness could therefore reduce yields. India and Thailand may see weaker rainfall and lower sugar output. Conversely, excessive Brazilian rain could disrupt sugar harvesting.
Africa and the Americas face contrasting risks
Southern Africa can experience severe drought during El Nino. However, the Greater Horn may receive wetter conditions. The WMO’s August-October outlook forecasts above-normal rainfall there, increasing flood risks.
These shifts could worsen food insecurity. Estimates suggest another 49 million people could face acute food insecurity across 45 vulnerable countries. The largest increases could occur across Central America, southern and eastern Africa, Asia and the Pacific.
Peru and Ecuador usually receive heavier El Nino rainfall. Peru has already experienced related flooding and landslides. Meanwhile, warmer Pacific waters weaken cold, nutrient-rich upwelling supporting South American fisheries. Wetter conditions remain more likely across the southern United States and southeastern South America.
Europe’s heat cannot simply blame El Nino
Europe has experienced widely reported extreme summer heatwaves. However, El Nino alone cannot explain those conditions. The WMO expects above-normal temperatures across much of Europe. Its rainfall outlook remains less certain. Human-driven global warming and regional weather patterns play major roles in Europe’s heat.
More concern comes from El Nino’s timing. Its strongest phase still lies ahead. Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. The event could peak between September and December.
Furthermore, effects may continue through 2027. Disrupted growing seasons could reduce harvests and raise food prices. Vulnerable populations could face additional pressure. Finally, unusually warm oceans surround the planet during this event. Therefore, El Nino’s heat, drought, wildfire and rainfall effects could prove harder to manage
