Amid ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, global oil and gas supply tensions have already increased significantly. Meanwhile, concern now rises around Bab al Mandeb Strait, located at the southern end of the Red Sea, which faces potential disruption.
Why Bab al Mandeb Strait Matters
Bab al Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, making it a crucial global route. Moreover, ships heading toward the Suez Canal pass through this corridor, placing it among the busiest and politically sensitive maritime routes.
Additionally, around 10 to 12 percent of global oil and natural gas supply moves through this passage. Furthermore, a large share of global trade also depends on this route, highlighting its economic importance worldwide.
Rising Threat in the Region
Meanwhile, tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have intensified, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have also become active. Notably, these rebels have earlier targeted ships in the Red Sea, increasing fears of disruption.
Therefore, experts warn that worsening conditions could impact this strait. Additionally, as pressure rises on the Strait of Hormuz, attention shifts toward Bab al Mandeb, which could become another critical risk point.
Possible Shortages and Supply Impact
If disruption occurs, oil and gas supply will face immediate impact, creating shortages across multiple sectors. Moreover, supplies of crude oil, petroleum products, edible oil, fertilisers, daily essentials, and industrial raw materials could reduce.
Furthermore, shipping delays and increased costs may raise prices and create shortages in markets. Additionally, ships may reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing travel time by 12 to 20 days.
Consequently, fuel costs, freight charges, and insurance premiums will rise sharply, while global supply chains may face additional pressure.
Impact on India’s Economy
For India, this route remains highly important because a large share of maritime trade passes through this corridor. Moreover, India’s trade with Europe heavily depends on this route, affecting both exports and imports.
Additionally, delays in Russian crude oil supply may occur, increasing industrial costs and affecting production levels. Furthermore, rising prices of edible oil and essential goods may increase inflation pressure on common citizens.
What Lies Ahead
As tensions continue, disruption risks around Bab al Mandeb remain a serious concern for global trade stability. Therefore, future developments will determine how supply chains adjust, while India closely watches impacts on trade, costs, and inflation.
