Early Election Trends Boost Market Confidence
Early trends from five state Assembly election results have now emerged. Moreover, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Bengal show signs of major political change. Meanwhile, Assam shows BJP returning to power with strong momentum. However, Bengal remains the most important result for investors. In early trends, BJP appears to cross the majority mark there.
Therefore, Dalal Street quickly started reacting to these political signals. Sensex jumped up to 900 points during trade. Also, Nifty gained more than 250 points. Consequently, stock market investors earned over ₹5.4 lakh crore within a short span. However, experts said these trends remain very early.
Experts Wait For Clearer Bengal Signals
Market experts believe Bengal needs closer attention till 12 pm. After that, Sensex and Nifty may react with greater force. If BJP keeps its Bengal lead after noon, both indices may rise 2% to 3%. Therefore, investors now track political numbers, crude prices, global cues, and liquidity closely.
On Monday, Indian shares saw a sharp rise. Sensex and Nifty gained almost 1%. At 10:35 am, Sensex traded above 77,520.78 points with gains of more than 600 points. During the session, Sensex climbed 997.25 points and touched 77,910.75. Meanwhile, Nifty traded above 24,193.15 points with gains of over 190 points. During trade, Nifty rose nearly 300 points and reached 24,290.20.
HUL And Maruti Lead Sensex Winners
Hindustan Unilever and Maruti Suzuki shares rose more than 4%. Therefore, they became the top Sensex gainers. After them, L&T, Adani Ports, Asian Paints, and M&M gained over 2%. However, Kotak Mahindra Bank shares fell nearly 3%.
Meanwhile, India VIX dropped more than 4.5% on Monday morning. It reached 17.65. Also, gains spread across almost every sector. Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 rose more than 1%. Among sectoral indices, Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty gained nearly 2%. Therefore, both became the strongest sectoral performers.
Additionally, Nifty FMCG, Nifty PSU Bank, and several other sectoral indices rose over 1.5%. On the National Stock Exchange, 2,246 shares advanced. Meanwhile, 690 shares declined, and 87 shares remained unchanged.
Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala And Assam Drive Sentiment
Counting started across four states and one Union Territory. Moreover, markets watched early trends very closely. In West Bengal, ruling TMC and BJP saw a tough contest. By 10:45 am, BJP crossed the majority mark in trends. It moved beyond 160 seats. Meanwhile, TMC led on 120 seats.
Similar trends also appeared in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Thalapathy Vijay’s party led on more than 100 seats. Also, the Congress alliance looked far ahead in Kerala. In Assam and Puducherry, governments appeared set to repeat.
Geojit Investments chief investment strategist V K Vijayakumar said state election results may influence markets strongly. However, he added that Bengal would get special attention. Still, he said this impact would last only for a very short period.
Trump’s Hormuz Plan Adds Another Trigger
Another reason came from Donald Trump’s new plan for ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. The US President announced this plan amid the ongoing war with Iran. Since the Strait stayed closed, many vessels remained trapped. On Sunday, Trump announced “Project Freedom” through Truth Social.
The plan aims to help cargo ships stuck since the Middle East war began. Earlier, Iran said the US administration answered its 14-point proposal through Pakistan. Iran also said it reviewed that response. However, Trump said acceptance looked unlikely. Meanwhile, markets may expect the war to end soon. Also, traders may hope trade through Hormuz resumes.
Softer Crude Prices Support Dalal Street
Oil prices continued to soften. Trump’s Hormuz plan may have reduced some supply concerns. Brent crude futures fell to $108 per barrel. Also, US WTI futures slipped to $101 per barrel. Macquarie expects crude prices near $85-90 in the near future.
However, Macquarie warned about longer disruptions till April. It said Brent could reach $150 per barrel. Meanwhile, Nuvama Institutional Equities said a long Hormuz closure could push crude prices to $110-150. Around 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait daily.
Oil prices started rising in March. The US-Iran war had shut the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, that disruption affected Dalal Street and other global markets.
Global Markets Open Mostly In Green
Global cues also helped Indian equities. Asian markets mostly opened in green. South Korea’s Kospi climbed nearly 5% on Monday morning. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose almost 2%. Taiwan Weighted gained more than 4%. Shanghai Composite and Japan’s Nikkei traded with mild gains.
On Friday, Wall Street closed in green. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained nearly 0.9%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX rose more than 1%. France’s CAC gained 0.5%. However, the UK’s FTSE closed in red on Thursday.
