Kolkata’s 17 assembly seats hold decisive importance in this election. Moreover, Muslim voters play a crucial role across these constituencies. However, influence varies from seat to seat. Therefore, changing political equations in 2026 may shape outcomes differently compared to 2021.
Role Of Muslim Voters
Muslim voters hold varying influence across Kolkata seats. Therefore, each constituency shows a different electoral equation. Meanwhile, the term ‘M factor’ dominates political discussions. Moreover, this factor refers to the Muslim vote bank shaping outcomes significantly.
In 2021, Trinamool Congress won all 17 seats. However, 2026 presents new challenges and dynamics. Therefore, the same results may not repeat easily this time.
Seat-Wise Influence
Muslim voters dominate seats like Metiabruz, Kolkata Port, Ballygunge, and Entally. Therefore, they directly influence victory in these areas. Meanwhile, Bhabanipur, Chowringhee, Beliaghata, Jorasanko, and Kashipur-Belgachia see moderate influence.
However, Tollygunge, Jadavpur, Kasba, Maniktala, Rashbehari, Behala East, and Behala West show limited impact. Therefore, Muslim voter strength remains below significant levels in these seats.
Percentage-Based Impact
Metiabruz holds around 60% Muslim population. Therefore, the M factor dominates completely here. Meanwhile, Kolkata Port has nearly 51% Muslim voters. Ballygunge also records about 50% share.
Additionally, Entally and Chowringhee show around 40% Muslim presence. Beliaghata has nearly 25% share. Meanwhile, Jorasanko and Kashipur-Belgachia show about 20%.
In these areas, Muslim voters act as a swing factor. Therefore, their preference can change outcomes quickly. However, Tollygunge, Jadavpur, Kasba, Behala East, Behala West, and Maniktala have below 10% presence.
2021 Election Performance
In 2021, Trinamool Congress dominated all 17 seats. Moreover, higher Muslim population areas gave TMC strong leads. Metiabruz, Kolkata Port, and Ballygunge saw 65% to 75% votes for TMC.
Meanwhile, BJP secured 25% to 35% votes in several urban seats. Therefore, competition remained active despite TMC dominance. Moreover, Mamata Banerjee secured a third term using Kolkata’s strength.
Bhabanipur Key Contest
Bhabanipur emerges as a high-profile seat in 2026. TMC fields Mamata Banerjee, while BJP fields Suvendu Adhikari. Moreover, CPI(M) fields Srijib Biswas, Congress fields Pradeep Prasad, and JUP fields Poonam Begum.
In 2021 bypoll, Mamata secured 85,263 votes with 71.90% share. She defeated BJP’s Priyanka Tibrewal. Meanwhile, in the general election, TMC got 57.71% and BJP got 35.16%.
Bhabanipur shows a mixed social structure. About 76% voters are Hindu, including 42% Bengali and 34% non-Bengali. Meanwhile, around 24% voters belong to the Muslim community.
Kolkata Port Battle
Kolkata Port has around 51% Muslim population. TMC leader Firhad Hakim remains strong here since 2011. Therefore, he continues as a key candidate in 2026.
TMC fields Firhad Hakim, CPI(M) fields Faiyaz Khan, Congress fields Aqib Gulzar, and JUP fields Rafiq Hasan. However, BJP has not announced its candidate yet.
In 2021, Hakim secured 1,05,543 votes with 69.23% share. Meanwhile, BJP received 24.26%. However, the ‘Mini Pakistan’ remark from 2016 resurfaced again. Therefore, political accusations intensified.
Metiabruz Importance
Metiabruz remains a major Muslim-dominated seat with nearly 60% population. Therefore, it holds strong electoral importance. TMC fields Abdul Khalik Molla, BJP fields Veer Bahadur Singh, CPI(M) fields Monirul Islam, and others contest.
TMC has won here continuously since 2011. However, some local dissatisfaction has emerged. Moreover, some party workers demanded a younger candidate instead of 81-year-old Molla.
Meanwhile, BJP candidate Veer Bahadur Singh gained attention. He worked as a teacher and has links with RSS. Moreover, he survived a firing incident in 2019. He accused local TMC leaders, but TMC denied claims.
Ballygunge Contest
Ballygunge holds nearly 50% Muslim voters. Therefore, it remains a crucial battleground. TMC has won here continuously since 2011. However, 2026 shows a multi-cornered contest.
TMC fields Sovandeb Chattopadhyay, while BJP fields Shatarupa. Moreover, CPI(M) fields Afrin Begum, Congress fields Rohan Mitra, and JUP fields Sounak Bhattacharya.
Hindi-Speaking Muslim Factor
Hindi-speaking Muslim voters form another important group. Many families migrated from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. Therefore, their preferences differ slightly from Bengali Muslim voters.
These voters influence seats like Metiabruz, Kolkata Port, and Bhabanipur significantly. Therefore, their role adds complexity to electoral calculations.
Muslim voter share and influence vary across Kolkata seats. Therefore, each constituency presents a unique contest. Meanwhile, changing equations after 2021 make 2026 unpredictable. Consequently, final results will reveal the true impact of this factor
