The three-week-old US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed after Donald Trump announced its end. The conflict has now created fresh global concerns. Following the announcement, the US military attacked over 80 Iranian military locations. Meanwhile, Iran targeted American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
However, the impact is not limited to West Asia. Global attention has shifted toward oil markets and the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the next 40 days may decide whether tensions reduce or expand further. India faces major concerns beyond oil prices. Inflation, rupee movement, cooking gas, stock markets, and festive demand remain important factors.
Oil Prices Become India’s First Major Concern
During the ceasefire period, Brent crude dropped to 69-70 dollars per barrel. However, rising tensions pushed prices above 78 dollars. Consequently, crude oil prices increased nearly 7 percent within a few days. India imports around 85 percent of its crude oil requirement. Therefore, international price changes directly affect Indian consumers. Currently, petrol and diesel prices remain stable across the country.
In Delhi, petrol costs 102.12 rupees per litre. Energy experts believe prices may rise if Brent stays between 75 and 78 dollars. Moreover, oil companies may face pressure within two to four weeks. If crude reaches 85-90 dollars, fuel price concerns may increase.
Hormuz Strait Creates The Biggest Supply Concern
Around 20 percent of global sea-based oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, tensions near this route worry global markets.
Meanwhile, India has changed its oil sourcing strategy in recent years. Around 70 percent of crude now comes from sources outside Hormuz. Earlier, this share stood near 55 percent. However, experts highlight concerns around LPG and LNG supplies. These supplies still depend heavily on Gulf regions. Any disruption could affect cooking gas, CNG, and PNG costs.
Additionally, higher shipping and insurance expenses may increase prices of imported goods.
Oil Pressure May Impact Inflation And Rupee Value
Higher oil prices affect more than fuel stations. India needs additional dollars for crude purchases. As a result, pressure increases on the rupee. On Wednesday, the rupee fell around 60 paise. It closed at 95.56 per dollar, marking its weakest level in nearly one month.
Furthermore, a weaker rupee makes electronics, edible oil, machinery, and imported products expensive. The effect gradually reaches inflation levels. August and September bring festive season demand.
If oil remains expensive and the rupee stays weak, inflation pressure may increase before festivals.
Stock Market Watches Global Tensions Closely
The conflict has already affected Indian markets. The Sensex declined 1,677 points during the tension.
Additionally, investors lost around 9 lakh crore rupees in wealth. India VIX also increased nearly 30 percent.
Experts believe markets will watch three major factors during the next 40 days.
First, investors will track the direction of US-Iran tensions. Second, they will watch the July Federal Reserve decision.
Third, markets will observe whether talks continue between both countries by mid-August.
If these issues remain unresolved, market volatility may increase further.
Why The Next 40 Days Are Crucial For India
India has strengthened its position by expanding oil import sources. However, complete protection remains difficult. If tensions reduce, Hormuz stays open, and crude falls below 75 dollars, India may receive relief.
However, prolonged conflict could create bigger challenges. Supply disruptions and crude prices above 85-90 dollars may affect multiple sectors.
The impact will not remain limited to petrol and diesel. Cooking gas, CNG, inflation, rupee value, and markets may also face pressure.
Therefore, the West Asian conflict may be far away geographically. Yet, the next 40 days could decide oil costs, inflation levels, and consumer burden in India.
