In a political move that has sent shockwaves through West Bengal, the upcoming 2026 assembly elections will see a dramatic battle for the Muslim vote, a key demographic that has shaped the state’s electoral outcomes in recent years. This high stakes contest has been significantly influenced by the controversial actions of Humayun Kabir, a former Trinamool Congress (TMC) MLA, who recently laid the foundation stone for a mosque modeled after the Babri Masjid on December 6, 2025. His actions were not just religious gestures; they were politically calculated moves aimed at galvanizing Muslim voters and carving out a new space for himself in Bengal’s complex political scene.
Bengal’s Muslim Voters: A Crucial Demographic
To understand the importance of this shift, one must first look at the numbers. Muslims comprise about 27% of West Bengal’s population, with some estimates suggesting that the figure could be closer to 30% due to illegal immigration from Bangladesh. The Muslim vote is especially concentrated in several districts, including Malda, Murshidabad, and Uttar Dinajpur, where the population exceeds 50%. Other districts, such as South 24 Parganas and Birbhum, also have significant Muslim populations. Together, these regions account for 89 assembly seats where Muslims form over 30% of the electorate, and 112 seats where the Muslim population exceeds 25%.
In the 2021 West Bengal elections, the Trinamool Congress dominated these seats, winning 87 of the 89 constituencies with Muslim populations exceeding 30%. The BJP, on the other hand, struggled in these areas, managing to win only a single seat, demonstrating the party’s inability to breach the Muslim vote stronghold. This trend has continued into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the Trinamool secured around 83% of Muslim votes.
The Rising Influence of Humayun Kabir
Against this backdrop, Humayun Kabir’s recent move to build a mosque modeled on the Babri Masjid and his subsequent expulsion from the Trinamool Congress created waves in Bengal’s political landscape. Kabir, a former BJP member turned Trinamool MLA, has now established his own political outfit, the Janata Unnayan Party (JUP), with the aim of representing the interests of Muslim voters. Kabir’s shift towards creating a new political voice for Muslims is significant, as it could divide the Muslim vote, traditionally consolidated under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership.
Kabir’s formation of the JUP has added complexity to an already fragmented political environment. His decision to make a direct appeal to the Muslim community, especially with his emphasis on cultural symbols like the Babri Masjid, reflects an attempt to position himself as an alternative political leader for Muslims, giving them a fresh platform beyond the TMC or the BJP.
The BJP’s Struggle and Trinamool’s Dominance
The battle for the Muslim vote in Bengal is complicated by the stark contrast in how the Trinamool and the BJP approach this demographic. The BJP’s performance in Muslim-majority constituencies has been dismal. In the 2021 assembly elections, the party’s strike rate in constituencies with a Muslim population of over 30% was nearly nonexistent. The BJP’s strategy of consolidating Hindu votes in Hindu-majority areas has worked in some regions, but it has failed to make inroads into the Muslim-dominated constituencies. With only a handful of seats in Muslim-majority regions, the BJP faces an uphill task in overcoming the Trinamool’s grip on these areas.
To make matters worse for the BJP, the political climate surrounding issues like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) has further alienated Muslim voters. As a result, the BJP’s ability to win Muslim majority seats remains limited, while the Trinamool continues to consolidate its position among Muslim voters, promising their protection and political representation.
The Road to Victory: What Does This Mean for the 2026 Elections?
For Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, maintaining its dominance over the Muslim vote is crucial. With 106 of the 112 Muslim majority seats already in its column, the Trinamool only needs to win 42 additional seats from the remaining Hindu-majority constituencies to secure a majority in the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly. In the 2021 elections, the party won 109 of the 182 Hindu-majority seats, giving it a comfortable victory with 215 seats.
For the BJP, the challenge is not just about consolidating Hindu votes it must find a way to break into the Muslim heartland. This task seems incredibly difficult, given the party’s consistent failure to capture Muslim-majority seats and the rising influence of Kabir’s JUP. To win, the BJP will either need to expand its base in Hindu-majority constituencies or find a way to make significant inroads into the Muslim vote, neither of which seem easy at this stage.
The Future of Muslim Political Representation in Bengal
The 2026 assembly elections will be a defining moment for Bengal’s political landscape, especially for its Muslim voters. As Mamata Banerjee continues to consolidate her position, the emergence of Humayun Kabir and the Janata Unnayan Party adds a new dimension to the competition for Muslim votes. The BJP, while strong in Hindu-majority areas, faces a long and difficult path to break into Muslim-majority constituencies, making it highly unlikely that the party will find success unless there is a major shift in voter sentiment.
In the end, the fate of the Muslim vote in Bengal will not only shape the outcome of the elections but also determine the future political dynamics of the state. Will Kabir’s JUP succeed in carving out a new space for Muslim voters, or will Mamata’s Trinamool Congress continue to dominate the political arena? The answer to this question will likely decide who holds power in Bengal for the years to come.
