Bangladesh’s political landscape is undergoing a seismic shift after the general elections held on February 12, 2026. With the dramatic exit of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from the election race, following the violence that ousted her in July 2024, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under the leadership of Tarique Rahman is poised for a major victory. This victory not only signals the end of a long political era but also raises critical questions for India and the region at large, given the complex dynamics that this change brings.
Tarique Rahman’s Return: A Political Drama
Tarique Rahman, the son of ex-President Ziaur Rahman and ex-Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, made a grand return to Bangladesh politics after spending years in exile. His return, following his mother’s death in December 2025, has been marked by dramatic political overtones. After fleeing Bangladesh in 2017 under corruption and money-laundering charges, Rahman’s homecoming was celebrated by a massive crowd that hailed his leadership.
In his first speech after returning, Rahman channeled the rhetoric of American civil rights activist Martin Luther King Jr., proclaiming, “I have a plan for Bangladesh,” setting the stage for a promising BNP campaign. His victory marks a pivotal moment in Bangladesh’s political history, as his leadership could reshape the country’s direction, particularly in foreign policy and governance.
India’s Reaction: A Delicate Balance
India has been closely monitoring the elections in Bangladesh, as the outcome holds the potential to shift regional geopolitics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a swift diplomatic move, offered Rahman and the BNP his “warm congratulations” on their victory. Modi’s message emphasized India’s support for a “democratic, progressive, and inclusive Bangladesh,” signaling India’s desire to continue strengthening bilateral ties with its neighbor.
While the congratulatory message seemed standard, the subtext was clear: India is keen on stabilizing its relationship with Bangladesh, moving past the tensions of the past 18 months, which included Bangladesh’s increasing proximity to China and Pakistan, along with concerns over violence against Hindu minorities.
The Potential Geopolitical Shift: Pakistan-China-Bangladesh Nexus
India’s primary concern revolves around the potential for a Pakistan-China-Bangladesh axis forming under Rahman’s leadership. A government less favorable to India could complicate regional dynamics, weakening India’s hold in South Asia. Analysts fear that a closer relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh, potentially facilitated by Rahman’s government, could result in a more antagonistic foreign policy towards India.
India’s interest in a stable Bangladesh is not just geopolitical but also tied to national security, particularly concerning issues like illegal migration, border security, and the treatment of religious minorities.
The Border and Internal Security Concerns
Bangladesh shares a 4,100 km border with India, a boundary that is densely populated and politically sensitive. Under Hasina’s leadership, Dhaka was seen as more cooperative with India, particularly in controlling illegal migration and cross-border killings. However, post-Hasina, with over 1,000 reported infiltration attempts, the situation appears more volatile.
The internal politics in India, especially in states like Bengal and Assam, which share a significant border with Bangladesh, are heavily influenced by these security concerns. Migration remains a core issue in regional politics, and any shift in Bangladesh’s policy could have a ripple effect on Indian elections, particularly with the BJP promising tougher measures against illegal migrants.
The Hindu Community: Rising Tensions
One of the most pressing concerns for India is the welfare of the Hindu community in Bangladesh, which has seen a dramatic rise in attacks since Hasina’s ousting. Hindus make up around 8% of Bangladesh’s population, and many have faced violence, with reports suggesting over 2,000 incidents targeting homes, businesses, and temples. The attacks are believed to have worsened during periods of political instability.
India has demanded stronger measures to protect Hindus, especially following the killing of at least 23 Hindus in the post-Hasina period. Prime Minister Modi’s government has expressed deep concerns and called for the protection of the Hindu community in Bangladesh. Rahman’s pledges to safeguard minorities will be watched closely, as the BNP’s historical alignment with conservative forces raises questions about how effective these promises will be.
Trade and Economic Ties
Trade between India and Bangladesh is another key area of interest. Bangladesh is a significant trading partner for India, with bilateral trade valued at $14 billion annually. India enjoys a nearly $10 billion trade surplus with Bangladesh, primarily due to exports of raw cotton to the country’s garment sector. Any shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy could affect these trade dynamics, particularly if Dhaka turns towards China for economic diversification.
However, given the importance of the readymade garments (RMG) sector to Bangladesh’s economy, Rahman’s government may prefer stability and continuity in its economic dealings with India, ensuring the continuation of a robust trade relationship.
A Wait and Watch Game for India
As Bangladesh embarks on this new chapter under Tarique Rahman’s leadership, India is closely monitoring developments. Rahman’s government is likely to take a less confrontational stance towards India than some of the more hardline alternatives, such as an alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, which had been a concern during the election period. While the prospect of a Pakistan-China-Bangladesh alliance remains a challenge, the absence of Jamaat-e-Islami as a coalition partner is a relief for India.
Ultimately, India’s focus will be on Rahman’s capability and intent regarding key issues like border control, minority protection, and regional security. While much remains to be seen, the outcome of Bangladesh’s 2026 elections could have profound implications for the country’s future and its relationship with India.
